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Prediction for CME (2022-01-19T06:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-19T06:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18889/-1
CME Note: This CME visible to the SW in STEREO A COR2 imagery is associated with a filament eruption centered near S50W20 visible in SDO AIA 304 starting as early as 2022-01-19T02:46Z. The event is very faintly seen as a partial halo to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 white light coronagraph imagery. There is some rotation-like behavior in the field components, but theres no magnetic shock and no arrival is supported by the density/speed/temperature data.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-23T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18891/1
Model Inputs:
2022-01-19T06:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=331.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2022-01-19T15:19Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-01-23T03:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220119_151900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 78.92 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M SWAO) on 2022-01-19T20:05Z

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